Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from hogtown.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 30 Jun 91 03:39:41 -0400 (EDT) Message-ID: Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 30 Jun 91 03:39:34 -0400 (EDT) Subject: SPACE Digest V13 #751 SPACE Digest Volume 13 : Issue 751 Today's Topics: Solar Flares Affecting the Planet? Re: Platinum-group metal concentrations in earth-crossing objects NASA Prediction Bulletins, Part 2 SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - IMPACT EXPECTED Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription requests, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sat, 15 Jun 91 23:52:03 EDT From: "Jason Epel [Consultant]" Subject: Solar Flares Affecting the Planet? It may be more non-scientific based rumor than fact, but I've heard that some scientists believe the run on plate disturbances can be attributed to the extraordinary solar flare activity we have experienced in the past weeks. There's more to linking the two together than is implied, physically speaking such is 'possible' though may as in this case be improbable. Is there any evidence to make this claim legitimate? Or are people losing all sense of [scientific] reality? -Jason jep@phys.physics.ucf.edu ------------------------------ Date: 16 Jun 91 03:19:07 GMT From: ogicse!sequent!muncher.sequent.com!szabo@uunet.uu.net Subject: Re: Platinum-group metal concentrations in earth-crossing objects In article <1991Jun16.003812.11369@world.std.com> webber@world.std.com (Robert D Webber) writes: [Use ice as source for water and carbon monoxide for asteroid material processing] >To me this makes the scheme seem even less likely, or at >least less predictable, since one has to assume that yet another whole >range of technical problems have been overcome cheaply. This is why the ice mining industry needs to be self-supporting outside of platinum mining. Indeed, this is a general principle that central planners usually miss out on -- the technology needs to evolve in such a way that each step is self-sufficient. Grand schemes to mine the platinum right now, without having first done the exploration and developed the simpler industries, would likely end in financial disaster. Ice can provide reaction mass, fuel, shielding, and heat sinks for Earth orbiting spacecraft, so that ice mining, if undertaken with sufficiently low costs, can pay for itself with current markets. How soon this will become possible depends on whether or not, and how soon, we discover earth-crossing ice, or as a second choice high concentrations of water of hydration, in good trajectories. It also depends on our ability to reduce the cost of automated missions on the order of complexity of CRAF and Phobos. Currently CRAF is in sad shape, using 70's-era computer chips and having to drop the penetrator. We all know what happened to Phobos. :-( We need to be a generation or two beyond that. -- Nick Szabo szabo@sequent.com Embrace Change... Keep the Values... Hold Dear the Laughter... These views are my own, and do not represent any organization. ------------------------------ Date: 15 Jun 91 12:05:32 GMT From: udecc.engr.udayton.edu!blackbird.afit.af.mil!tkelso@tut.cis.ohio-state.edu (TS Kelso) Subject: NASA Prediction Bulletins, Part 2 The most current orbital elements from the NASA Prediction Bulletins are carried on the Celestial BBS, (513) 427-0674, and are updated several times weekly. Documentation and tracking software are also available on this system. As a service to the satellite user community, the most current of these elements are uploaded weekly to sci.space. This week's elements are provided below. The Celestial BBS may be accessed 24 hours/day at 300, 1200, or 2400 baud using 8 data bits, 1 stop bit, no parity. - Current NASA Prediction Bulletins #855b - COBE 1 20322U 89 89 A 91158.51798613 .00000463 00000-0 32022-3 0 3367 2 20322 99.0221 170.5153 0009511 100.2271 259.9986 14.03098213 79314 Kvant-2 1 20335U 89 93 A 91162.73138546 .00030289 00000-0 33845-3 0 7208 2 20335 51.6110 314.7483 0024301 243.4072 114.8160 15.62126950 87970 GPS BII-05 1 20361U 89 97 A 91135.16341753 .00000012 00000-0 99999-4 0 1718 2 20361 55.0542 127.1787 0062480 62.5659 298.0823 2.00558286 1000 SPOT 2 1 20436U 90 5 A 91162.66938264 .00000550 00000-0 27658-3 0 6013 2 20436 98.7413 237.0305 0001155 79.4989 280.6323 14.20042572 71769 UO-14 1 20437U 90 5 B 91158.70103685 .00000524 00000-0 22216-3 0 3906 2 20437 98.6671 238.2142 0010783 191.9222 168.1731 14.29137619 71639 UO-15 1 20438U 90 5 C 91162.65771852 .00000391 00000-0 17144-3 0 2841 2 20438 98.6698 242.0271 0009997 179.0028 181.1179 14.28716071 72187 PACSAT 1 20439U 90 5 D 91160.69691806 .00000534 00000-0 22600-3 0 2891 2 20439 98.6721 240.5293 0010737 185.0177 175.0902 14.29226088 71920 DO-17 1 20440U 90 5 E 91160.04759617 .00000561 00000-0 23655-3 0 2898 2 20440 98.6726 239.9293 0010883 185.8393 174.2666 14.29310557 71832 WO-18 1 20441U 90 5 F 91159.73789561 .00000507 00000-0 21470-3 0 2853 2 20441 98.6718 239.6701 0011495 187.8161 172.2844 14.29353833 71795 LO-19 1 20442U 90 5 G 91161.04274353 .00000525 00000-0 22150-3 0 2866 2 20442 98.6716 241.0261 0012000 182.6537 177.4586 14.29432439 71986 GPS BII-06 1 20452U 90 8 A 91159.99177998 .00000005 00000-0 99999-4 0 2249 2 20452 54.4441 241.4336 0040419 52.6725 307.8481 2.00559471 10000 MOS-1B 1 20478U 90 13 A 91161.11034504 .00000298 00000-0 24780-3 0 5887 2 20478 99.1532 234.0497 0001192 91.8353 268.2900 13.94843473 68033 DEBUT 1 20479U 90 13 B 91160.42855519 .00000067 00000-0 20044-3 0 2350 2 20479 99.0251 144.0617 0540755 319.2341 36.9469 12.83203572 62561 FO-20 1 20480U 90 13 C 91160.34674408 .00000019 00000-0 71892-4 0 2309 2 20480 99.0258 143.9905 0540821 319.3541 36.8346 12.83182273 62551 MOS-1B R/B 1 20491U 90 13 D 91159.39429253 -.00000473 00000-0 -86732-3 0 2999 2 20491 99.0184 156.7727 0469749 276.2867 78.4947 13.02829673 62784 LACE 1 20496U 90 15 A 91162.29814037 .00010208 00000-0 50949-3 0 5660 2 20496 43.0874 141.1443 0017757 89.6894 270.5990 15.17474956 73010 RME 1 20497U 90 15 B 91160.74412226 .00025941 00000-0 45315-3 0 6205 2 20497 43.1020 37.8731 0020446 198.0685 161.9445 15.49939072 74028 Nadezhda 2 1 20508U 90 17 A 91160.46465412 .00000158 00000-0 15778-3 0 3428 2 20508 82.9545 156.4680 0046314 72.3099 288.3118 13.73318293 64043 OKEAN 2 1 20510U 90 18 A 91162.92442575 .00001586 00000-0 23194-3 0 5643 2 20510 82.5301 126.0280 0018551 176.9880 183.1271 14.75030818 69068 INTELSAT-6 1 20523U 90 21 A 91160.11012315 -.00002918 00000-0 -21343-3 0 5270 2 20523 28.3336 82.7550 0015676 48.2017 311.9866 15.03778553 68207 GPS BII-07 1 20533U 90 25 A 91155.91071483 -.00000034 00000-0 99999-4 0 2241 2 20533 55.2257 1.7141 0036695 95.9708 264.4937 2.00570856 8693 PegSat 1 20546U 90 28 A 91162.19085724 .00015184 00000-0 74655-3 0 5569 2 20546 94.1384 47.4607 0131728 112.4326 249.0935 15.10616810 64064 HST 1 20580U 91161.45200340 .00004144 00000-0 42750-3 0 4776 2 20580 28.4690 125.3460 0004946 257.0432 102.9505 14.87844075 61314 Glonass 44 1 20619U 90 45 A 91162.61794670 -.00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 5362 2 20619 65.0870 26.6071 0021713 212.8440 147.0891 2.13103202 8285 Glonass 45 1 20620U 90 45 B 91162.26654380 -.00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 5818 2 20620 65.0777 26.6168 0008746 38.1194 322.0108 2.13103219 8280 Glonass 46 1 20621U 90 45 C 91162.79484970 -.00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 4890 2 20621 65.0991 26.6108 0011709 201.5055 158.5132 2.13102458 8292 Kristall 1 20635U 90 48 A 91162.79531007 .00053703 00000-0 59570-3 0 5205 2 20635 51.6067 314.4243 0020456 237.5876 120.3368 15.62147673 58861 ROSAT 1 20638U 90 49 A 91160.66408134 .00005188 00000-0 42066-3 0 3133 2 20638 52.9789 261.0334 0012445 332.0255 28.0076 15.01140712 55900 Meteor 2-19 1 20670U 90 57 A 91160.96801664 .00000168 00000-0 14097-3 0 2423 2 20670 82.5477 4.6509 0016867 8.8332 351.3124 13.83978346 48009 CRRES 1 20712U 90 65 A 91162.30498316 .00004965 00000-0 77366-2 0 3208 2 20712 17.7984 274.2336 7165490 86.4916 337.2498 2.36751471 50 GPS BII-08 1 20724U 90 68 A 91155.26001400 .00000016 00000-0 99999-4 0 1259 2 20724 54.6709 182.2340 0095676 127.1562 233.7769 2.00565075 6109 Feng Yun1-2 1 20788U 90 81 A 91161.36512216 .00000144 00000-0 11868-3 0 1962 2 20788 98.9462 195.0547 0014383 195.5712 164.5011 14.01162244 39257 Meteor 2-20 1 20826U 90 86 A 91160.91099395 .00000148 00000-0 12462-3 0 1929 2 20826 82.5239 303.6742 0011836 262.4817 97.4998 13.83349490 35203 GPS BII-09 1 20830U 90 88 A 91155.79270836 .00000012 00000-0 99999-4 0 1254 2 20830 54.9564 124.5603 0072551 115.2474 245.4882 2.00570245 5196 GPS BII-10 1 20959U 90103 A 91160.18959019 .00000016 00000-0 99999-4 0 804 2 20959 54.9067 183.6590 0048771 216.2913 143.4579 2.00567536 3876 DMSP B5D2-5 1 20978U 90105 A 91162.89412391 .00001325 00000-0 50216-3 0 2156 2 20978 98.8376 199.6056 0081199 154.6276 205.8928 14.31019173 27490 Glonass 47 1 21006U 90110 A 91162.83350049 .00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 2195 2 21006 64.8356 146.2322 0061653 187.8207 172.0726 2.13102208 3970 Glonass 48 1 21007U 90110 B 91162.07226501 .00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 2300 2 21007 64.8570 146.2885 0038782 182.4042 177.5790 2.13100503 3953 Glonass 49 1 21008U 90110 C 91162.42438285 .00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 2180 2 21008 64.8374 146.2684 0011492 289.8976 69.9673 2.13100309 3969 INFORMTR-1 1 21087U 91161.25772126 .00000120 00000-0 11513-3 0 907 2 21087 82.9412 238.8454 0034268 280.0001 79.7287 13.74386634 18075 Cosmos 2123 1 21089U 91 7 A 91160.92134196 .00000132 00000-0 12912-3 0 905 2 21089 82.9231 109.4949 0028543 302.9485 56.8925 13.73902856 17148 MOP-2 1 21140U 91 15 B 91144.33757974 -.00000018 00000-0 99999-4 0 741 2 21140 1.0365 299.2916 0006162 150.9349 269.8789 1.00204278 620 Nadezhda 3 1 21152U 91 19 A 91160.75584414 .00000006 00000-0 00000 0 0 992 2 21152 82.9444 64.4499 0043540 46.1034 314.3763 13.73347300 12218 Almaz-1 1 21213U 91 24 A 91162.65582952 .00189482 16538-4 32724-3 0 1606 2 21213 72.6985 277.7097 0011368 246.1699 113.9173 16.02087332 11530 Cosmos 2139 1 21216U 91 25 A 91162.38355382 -.00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 1278 2 21216 64.8332 26.7290 0006568 222.7392 137.2756 2.13103239 1464 Cosmos 2140 1 21217U 91 25 B 91161.97297393 -.00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 1269 2 21217 64.8228 26.7624 0008983 242.4680 117.5044 2.13102849 1458 Cosmos 2141 1 21218U 91 25 C 91162.55981765 -.00000019 00000-0 99999-4 0 1280 2 21218 64.8178 26.7328 0007146 319.0545 40.9569 2.13102921 1468 GRO 1 21225U 91 27 B 91162.23608301 .00015045 00000-0 35424-3 0 1104 2 21225 28.4643 137.3960 0009915 300.8216 59.1413 15.40298500 10282 Meteor 3-4 1 21232U 91 30 A 91160.65895333 .00000005 00000-0 00000 0 0 289 2 21232 82.5456 229.8259 0018179 71.8584 288.4510 13.15983919 6135 NOAA 12 1 21263U 91 32 A 91140.76038009 -.00000029 00000-0 -48199-5 0 155 2 21263 98.7352 170.3864 0012304 244.5373 115.4525 14.21383733 869 1991 032B 1 21267U 91 32 B 91162.92795174 .00010535 00000-0 47789-2 0 279 2 21267 98.7402 192.3355 0008566 163.1563 196.9973 14.21968433 4018 1991 032C 1 21298U 91 43 C 91162.08481465 .00009729 00000-0 44237-2 0 220 2 21298 98.7310 191.4957 0007336 162.7842 197.3619 14.21872772 3894 Cosmos 2143 1 21299U 91 33 A 91160.64257486 .00000023 00000-0 99999-4 0 184 2 21299 82.5731 211.0069 0010189 320.7916 39.2436 12.63608613 3003 Cosmos 2144 1 21300U 91 33 B 91161.06786715 .00000022 00000-0 99999-4 0 118 2 21300 82.5771 210.7876 0001943 332.2035 27.8951 12.62069552 3041 Cosmos 2145 1 21301U 91 33 C 91161.05318047 .00000022 00000-0 99999-4 0 139 2 21301 82.5659 210.7523 0005630 324.1996 35.8716 12.62837666 3046 Cosmos 2146 1 21302U 91 33 D 91160.63034719 .00000023 00000-0 99999-4 0 135 2 21302 82.5751 211.0000 0013499 329.6003 30.4305 12.64261532 2998 Cosmos 2147 1 21303U 91 33 E 91160.61963213 .00000023 00000-0 99999-4 0 112 2 21303 82.5656 210.9682 0016543 326.9215 33.0842 12.64833344 2996 Cosmos 2148 1 21304U 91 33 F 91156.65220625 .00000023 00000-0 99999-4 0 104 2 21304 82.5730 213.5111 0020845 332.2652 27.7327 12.65626462 2496 1991 033G 1 21305U 91 33 G 91137.52675849 .00000004 00000-0 00000 0 0 22 2 21305 82.5664 225.7962 0036908 206.0312 153.8935 12.54722500 76 Soyuz TM-12 1 21311U 91 34 A 91162.73138007 .00041847 00000-0 46819-3 0 292 2 21311 51.6261 314.7554 0018400 229.9424 128.1885 15.62087438 3803 RESURS F-10 1 21313U 90 35 A 91162.72507355 .00299952 -11949-5 21047-3 0 400 2 21313 82.3097 14.7959 0010947 93.1051 267.2126 16.16117873 3455 Cosmos 2149 1 21315U 91 36 A 91162.71472655 .00699901 27908-4 41100-3 0 531 2 21315 67.1319 40.0020 0116620 74.6298 286.7564 16.04668149 2903 Aurora II 1 21392U 91 37 A 91161.66007405 .00000121 00000-0 99999-4 0 155 2 21392 0.1457 226.6190 0013399 180.2173 313.2726 1.00256617 12 1991 037B 1 21393U 91 37 B 91160.69517305 .00012567 00000-0 14387-2 0 112 2 21393 24.9960 1.3667 1258142 152.8396 214.3917 12.71456311 1380 Progress M8 1 21395U 91 38 A 91162.66744163 .00043963 00000-0 49005-3 0 196 2 21395 51.6075 315.0754 0019829 242.8683 115.4563 15.62126608 1949 OKEAN 3 1 21397U 91 39 A 91162.66330060 .00009632 00000-0 14680-2 0 113 2 21397 82.5298 34.8706 0022142 245.9706 113.9183 14.73645680 1089 1991 039B 1 21398U 91 39 B 91161.10061433 .00000853 00000-0 12637-3 0 125 2 21398 82.5291 36.3082 0022212 252.6870 107.1908 14.73816376 858 STS 40 1 21399U 91 40 A 91163.12508770 .01258176 00000-0 24450-2 0 233 2 21399 39.0061 289.6558 0008945 60.8652 299.6354 15.96805156 1040 -- Dr TS Kelso Assistant Professor of Space Operations tkelso@blackbird.afit.af.mil Air Force Institute of Technology ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 15 Jun 91 12:16:40 MDT From: oler <@BITNET.CC.CMU.EDU:oler@HG.ULeth.CA> (CARY OLER) Subject: SIGNIFICANT MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT - IMPACT EXPECTED X-St-Vmsmail-To: st%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" -- MAJOR SOLAR FLARE ALERT -- JUNE 15, 1991 Flare Event Summary Potential Impact Assessment -------- MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENT SUMMARY Region 6659 has managed to spawn another Great Flare, rated as a class X12/3B tenflare from a location of N33W69. The energy released by this event was enormous. Protons were ejected with high-energies. The cosmic ray neutron monitors registered a Ground Level Event (GLE) of +18% at 09:40 UT. The neutron monitors are back near background levels. Todays major flare was very long in duration. It began at 08:10 UT, peaked at 08:18 UT and ended at 14:02 UT on 15 June (almost six hours in duration!). There were major (importance 3) Types II and IV sweeps with this event. The integrated x-ray flux was high, at 2.85. There were fairly strong radio bursts across the spectrum. The 10 cm burst was 14,000 sfu while the 245 MHz burst was 6,400 sfu. Near relativistic protons were observed with this event, which has produced another strong PCA event. Protons at greater than 100 MeV peaked at 77 pfu at 10:10 UT on 15 June. A brief SST Radiation Alert for radiation greater than or equal to 10 millirems was issued at 10:00 UT on 15 June. Conditions have since relaxed and this radiation hazard alert for high altitude aircraft has ended. The 10 MeV protons climbed quickly to a preliminary peak of 1700 pfu at 17:05 UT on 15 June. This peak is preliminary, since protons at greater than 10 MeV are currently running at levels near 900 pfu. Sporadic excursions above this peak may still occur. Polar radio signal paths have again been blacked out from this last proton blast from Region 6659. Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) levels peaked at 15:55 UT with a preliminary value of about 6.3 dB. However, this peak is preliminary and excursions beyond this point may still be possible. PCA is currently running ~ 5 dB. The 10 cm radio burst from this flare remained 100% above background levels for 123 minutes. The 10 cm burst began at 08:13 UT on 15 June. POTENTIAL TERRESTRIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT Despite the relatively poor position of this flare, we are considering a fairly strong possibility for a minor to major geomagnetic storm beginning sometime on 17 June. A-indices of greater than 50 may be possible. This flare has released sufficient energy to be a threat, even at its present position. We are still performing analysis and will release an official forecast within the next few hours. If storm conditions are expected, this forecast will be released with a Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning. A major HF blackout has been reported by the areas which were sunlit during this event. X-rays have now dropped below M-class levels and are continuing to slowly decay back toward background levels. Major flaring will continue to be possible from this Region, although another X-class event likely will not be observed before this region crosses the west limb. It is obviously still a potent region. Watch for another bulletin or Warning stating the expected forcast for this event later this UT day. ** End of Alert ** ------------------------------ End of SPACE Digest V13 #751 *******************